Value Betting: The Only Way to Make Money Sports Betting
The only way to make money betting on sports, in the long run, is by placing bets that have a positive Expected Value (+EV). You will also need to understand Implied Probabilities and betting Margins.
Unfortunately, even if you make all the right decisions over an entire season of betting, that doesn’t ensure you’ll come out ahead.
You can make great picks and still lose because sports betting is heavily influenced by luck (we’re talking about humans here), but mostly in the short term.
If you understand and deploy the concept of expected value (EV), though, you’ll see you can control your profits in the long run.
So, what is EV? What is Value Betting?
Every decision you make when placing a bet can be classified as either Plus (+) EV or Negative (-) EV.
+EV is a good choice: one that will make you money in the long term.
(-)EV is a bad choice: one that will lose you money in the long run.
“In probability theory the expected value of a random variable is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the experiment multiplied by the outcome value (or payoff).Expected Value as explained by Wikipedia
“Thus, it represents the average amount one ‘expects’ as the outcome of the random trial when identical odds are repeated many times.”
In plain English: Expected value is the amount of money you would win or lose, on average, on your bet.
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